The Economy is Booming

[Architorture]

http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/briefingpapers_may03bp_lowerdollar
good article on the weak dollar

[Richard Haut]

there have been one or two changes since May last year.

[Donald]

Yes the dollar is plunging. Inflation will send prices soaring, and you will need a lot more to maintain your lifestyle. Yet at that same time, you will have less money.

Every time the Fed has raised interest rates over and over, two things take place. First, the stock market crashes. A deep long bear market follows. Second, the economy goes into a major recession. It's the first part -- that crash and bear market -- that gives you such a wonderful opportunity.

And it's a good thing. Because the second part is a killer. You've got commitments. You've got payments on the house. You've got kids to send to college, and bills to pay. You have a pretty good life. But the way things are going, you're never going to make any really big money. The coming bear market and major recession guarantee It.

You know, like I know, the time has finally come. All the pieces are in place. The Fed is raising rates. Oil prices are soaring. Inflation is spreading through the red-hot U.S. economy. The stock market is about to crash.

You know this is the greatest money-making opportunity of a lifetime. But you have to know what to do. More important, you must do it. I have agonized over watching the biggest stock market move in history pass us by.

I realize two things. The coming events could really hurt you, and worse, you will miss the opportunity of a lifetime

[Architorture]

[Richard Haut]

the author quite rightly talks about the need for an orderly decline in the dollar (and a need for a pre-defined "floor" value), and the opening of US markets to other nations.

the combination of protectionism (and remember that Bush's announcing of US steel tariffs immediately upon his return from China was calculatedly offensive to China), together with the foul-mouthed bigot attitude to other countries (Donald gives an accurate apeing of this) is not going to encourage the "weenies" to buy your products and services, or believe that they will get proper access to US markets.

certainly an orderly decline in the dollar can help the US, especially in manufacturing - unless (as the article makes clear) it turns into a rout. The author concentrates on the effects of this on other markets - rather than within the US.

the US has an excessive deficit and a pointless war which is severely damaging to the credibility of the US internationally and is so expensive as to risk the whole economy.

when one factors in Bush's intention of privatizing the US social service money, the risk is that the recession that he may cause (and recession could equal depression) may result in real poverty for those whose retirement and other funds are being gambled.

the point is that Bush's policies may turn the decline into a rout.

[Architorture]

you are assuming that other nations wouldn't buy american products b/c of bush policy... i think we know when it comes to getting the best price on a product countries are generally willing to give up their politics pretty easily...

like with say...the united states and china... even though ideologically and even some military clashes the US continues to buy from china and vice versa...

to say that the international trade world is going to turn its back on cheap products from the united states is as asinine as the concept of "freedom fries"

[Architorture]

and ultimately in the end all you can say is "it may turn into a rout"... history doesn't support that theory though... so i guess only time can really tell...

but to speak only of the here and now, you can't say that the weak dollar is hurting america in anyway

[Richard Haut]

"generally willing to give up their politics pretty easily... "

not everybody is as easy to buy as the American public.

I see that the dollar managed a tiny rally today.

[SDR]

Pete Peterson ("Running on Empty") and others make the point that the confidence of those overseas investors who buy American bonds and dollars is dependent on these investments remaining attractive -- the suggestion is that we are close to a possible "tipping point" in that confidence. A "landing" (or "adjustment") is increasingly predicted; the hope is that it will be a soft landing and not the "other kind." Peterson seems to be one of those old enough to be unafraid to "tell it like it is;" he says the Social Security Trust Fund is incorrectly named, as it is "not funded and should not be trusted." The so-called "Lock Box" "securing" the fund contains IOUs, not funds. . .

SDR

[Donald]

Yes, RH, its the privatization of Social Security funds that you mention. Of all the reforms proposed by George Bush during his second term, nothing seems to cause Democrats to hyperventilate quite so much as his plans for Social Security. If you truly understand the collectivist and anti-individualistic mentality of the left this will come as no surprise.

Just what is President Bush proposing? Is it truly as hideous and ugly as the Democrats portray it? Will it be the end of our country; the end of life as we know it in America. Hardly. Bush simply plans to allow "younger workers" (however that may be defined) to take some of the money that the government confiscates as Social Security payroll taxes and put that money in a private account. This account would be owned by the individual. Government can't take it away. If the individual dies before retirement the account goes to his family, not to the government. He earned that money. It's his. It remains his.

What, pray tell, is so horrible about this idea

[Donald]

Yes, RH, its the privatization of Social Security funds that you mention. Of all the reforms proposed by George Bush during his second term, nothing seems to cause Democrats to hyperventilate quite so much as his plans for Social Security. If you truly understand the collectivist and anti-individualistic mentality of the left this will come as no surprise.

Just what is President Bush proposing? Is it truly as hideous and ugly as the Democrats portray it? Will it be the end of our country; the end of life as we know it in America. Hardly. Bush simply plans to allow "younger workers" (however that may be defined) to take some of the money that the government confiscates as Social Security payroll taxes and put that money in a private account. This account would be owned by the individual. Government can't take it away. If the individual dies before retirement the account goes to his family, not to the government. He earned that money. It's his. It remains his.

What, pray tell, is so horrible about this idea

[Donald]

Yes, RH, its the privatization of Social Security funds that you mention. Of all the reforms proposed by George Bush during his second term, nothing seems to cause Democrats to hyperventilate quite so much as his plans for Social Security. If you truly understand the collectivist and anti-individualistic mentality of the left this will come as no surprise.

Just what is President Bush proposing? Is it truly as hideous and ugly as the Democrats portray it? Will it be the end of our country; the end of life as we know it in America. Hardly. Bush simply plans to allow "younger workers" (however that may be defined) to take some of the money that the government confiscates as Social Security payroll taxes and put that money in a private account. This account would be owned by the individual. Government can't take it away. If the individual dies before retirement the account goes to his family, not to the government. He earned that money. It's his. It remains his.

What, pray tell, is so horrible about this idea